Physics-constrained machine learning for scientific computing

Amazon researchers draw inspiration from finite-volume methods and adapt neural operators to enforce conservation laws and boundary conditions in deep-learning models of physical systems.

Commercial applications of deep learning have been making headlines for years — never more so than this spring. More surprisingly, deep-learning methods have also shown promise for scientific computing, where they can be used to predict solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). These equations are often prohibitively expensive to solve numerically; using data-driven methods has the potential to transform both scientific and engineering applications of scientific computing, including aerodynamics, ocean and climate, and reservoir modeling.

A fundamental challenge is that the predictions of deep-learning models trained on physical data typically ignore fundamental physical principles. Such models might, for instance, violate system conservation laws: the solution to a heat transfer problem may fail to conserve energy, or the solution to a fluid flow problem may fail to conserve mass. Similarly, a model’s solution may violate boundary conditions — say, allowing heat flow through an insulator at the boundary of a physical system. This can happen even when the model’s training data includes no such violations: at inference time, the model may simply extrapolate from patterns in the training data in an illicit way.

In a pair of recent papers accepted at the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) and the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), we investigate the problems of adding known physics constraints to the predictive outputs of machine learning (ML) models when computing the solutions to PDEs.

Related content
Danielle Maddix Robinson's mathematics background helps inform robust models that can predict everything from retail demand to epidemiology.

The ICML paper, “Learning physical models that can respect conservation laws”, which we will present in July, focuses on satisfying conservation laws with black-box models. We show that, for certain types of challenging PDE problems with propagating discontinuities, known as shocks, our approach to constraining model outputs works better than its predecessors: it more sharply and accurately captures the physical solution and its uncertainty and yields better performance on downstream tasks.

In this paper, we collaborated with Derek Hansen, a PhD student in the Department of Statistics at the University of Michigan, who was an intern at AWS AI Labs at the time, and Michael Mahoney, an Amazon Scholar in Amazon’s Supply Chain Optimization Technologies organization and a professor of statistics at the University of California, Berkeley.

In a complementary paper we presented at this year’s ICLR, “Guiding continuous operator learning through physics-based boundary constraints”, we, together with Nadim Saad, an AWS AI Labs intern at the time and a PhD student at the Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering (ICME) at Stanford University, focus on enforcing physics through boundary conditions. The modeling approach we describe in this paper is a so-called constrained neural operator, and it exhibits up to a 20-fold performance improvement over previous operator models.

So that scientists working with models of physical systems can benefit from our work, we’ve released the code for the models described in both papers (conservation laws | boundary constraints) on GitHub. We also presented on both works in March 2023 at AAAI's symposium on Computational Approaches to Scientific Discovery.

Danielle Maddix Robinson on physics-constrained machine learning for scientific computing
A talk presented in April 2023 at the Machine Learning and Dynamical Systems Seminar at the Alan Turing Institute.

Conservation laws

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating physical constraints into the learning process as part of the loss function. In other words, the physical information is treated as a soft constraint or regularization.

Related content
Hybrid model that combines machine learning with differential equations outperforms models that use either strategy by itself.

A main issue with these approaches is that they do not guarantee that the physical property of conservation is satisfied. To address this issue, in “Learning physical models that can respect conservation laws”, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating constraints into a generic SciML architecture. Instead of expressing conservation laws in the differential forms of PDEs, which are commonly used in SciML as extra terms in the loss function, ProbConserv converts them into their integral form. This allows us to use ideas from finite-volume methods to enforce conservation.

In finite-volume methods, a spatial domain — say, the region through which heat is propagating — is discretized into a finite set of smaller volumes called control volumes. The method maintains the balance of mass, energy, and momentum throughout this domain by applying the integral form of the conservation law locally across each control volume. Local conservation requires that the out-flux from one volume equals the in-flux to an adjacent volume. By enforcing the conservation law across each control volume, the finite-volume method guarantees global conservation across the whole domain, where the rate of change of the system’s total mass is given by the change in fluxes along the domain boundaries.

Flux Volume Edit-01_230525135151.jpg
The integral form of a conservation law states that the rate of change of the total mass of the system over a domain (Ω) is equal to the difference between the in-flux and out-flux along the domain boundaries (∂Ω).

More specifically, the first step in the ProbConserv method is to use a probabilistic machine learning model — such as a Gaussian process, attentive neural process (ANP), or ensembles of neural-network models — to estimate the mean and variance of the outputs of the physical model. We then use the integral form of the conservation law to perform a Bayesian update to the mean and covariance of the distribution of the solution profile such that it satisfies the conservation constraint exactly in the limit.

Related content
Learning the complete quantile function, which maps probabilities to variable values, rather than building separate models for each quantile level, enables better optimization of resource trade-offs.

In the paper, we provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv’s application to the generalized porous-medium equation (GPME), a widely used parameterized family of PDEs. The GPME has been used in applications ranging from underground flow transport to nonlinear heat transfer to water desalination and beyond. By varying the PDE parameters, we can describe PDE problems with different levels of complexity, ranging from “easy” problems, such as parabolic PDEs that model smooth diffusion processes, to “hard” nonlinear hyperbolic-like PDEs with shocks, such as the Stefan problem, which has been used to model two-phase flow between water and ice, crystal growth, and more complex porous media such as foams.

For easy GPME variants, ProbConserv compares well to state-of-the-art competitors, and for harder GPME variants, it outperforms other ML-based approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with the problem of estimating shock propagation, which is difficult given ML models’ bias toward smooth and continuous behavior. It also effectively handles heteroskedasticity, or fluctuation in variables’ standard deviations. In all cases, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks, such as predicting shock location, which is a challenging problem even for advanced numerical solvers.

Examples

Conservation of mass.png
Conservation of mass can be violated by a black-box deep-learning model (here, the ANP), even when the PDE is applied as a soft constraint (here, SoftC-ANP) on the loss function, à la physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). This figure shows the variation of total mass over time for the smooth constant coefficient diffusion equation (an “easy” GPME example). The true mass remains zero, since there is zero net flux from the domain boundaries, and thus mass cannot be created or destroyed in the domain interior.
Uncertainty quantification.png
Density solution profiles with uncertainty quantification. In the “hard” version of the GPME problem, also known as the Stefan problem, the solution profile may contain a moving sharp interface in space, known as a shock. The shock here separates the region with fluid from the degenerate one with zero fluid density. The uncertainty is largest in the shock region and becomes smaller in the areas away from it. The main idea behind ProbConserv’s UQ method is to use the uncertainty in the unconstrained black box to modify the mean and covariance at the locations where the variance is largest, to satisfy the conservation constraint. The constant-variance assumption in the HardC-ANP baseline does not result in improvement on this hard task, while ProbConserv results in a better estimate of the solution at the shock and a threefold improvement in the mean squared error (MSE).
Shock position.png
Downstream task. Histogram of the posterior of the shock position computed by ProbConserv and the other baselines. While the baseline models skew the distribution of the shock position, ProbConserv computes a distribution that is well-centered around the true shock position. This illustrates that enforcing physical constraints such as conservation is necessary in order to provide reliable and accurate estimations of the shock position.

Boundary conditions

Boundary conditions (BCs) are physics-enforced constraints that solutions of PDEs must satisfy at specific spatial locations. These constraints carry important physical meaning and guarantee the existence and the uniqueness of PDE solutions. Current deep-learning-based approaches that aim to solve PDEs rely heavily on training data to help models learn BCs implicitly. There is no guarantee, though, that these models will satisfy the BCs during evaluation. In our ICLR 2023 paper, “Guiding continuous operator learning through physics-based boundary constraints”, we propose an efficient, hard-constrained, neural-operator-based approach to enforcing BCs.

Related content
Amazon quantum computing scientist recognized for ‘outstanding contributions to physics’.

Where most SciML methods (for example, PINNs) parameterize the solution to PDEs with a neural network, neural operators aim to learn the mapping from PDE coefficients or initial conditions to solutions. At the core of every neural operator is a kernel function, formulated as an integral operator, that describes the evolution of a physical system over time. For our study, we chose the Fourier neural operator (FNO) as an example of a kernel-based neural operator.

We propose a model we call the boundary-enforcing operator network (BOON). Given a neural operator representing a PDE solution, a training dataset, and prescribed BCs, BOON applies structural corrections to the neural operator to ensure that the predicted solution satisfies the system BCs.

BOON architecture full.png
BOON architectures. Kernel correction architectures for commonly used Dirichlet, Neumann, and periodic boundary conditions that carry different physical meanings.

We provide our refinement procedure and demonstrate that BOON’s solutions satisfy physics-based BCs, such as Dirichlet, Neumann, and periodic. We also report extensive numerical experiments on a wide range of problems including the heat and wave equations and Burgers's equation, along with the challenging 2-D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, which are used in climate and ocean modeling. We show that enforcing these physical constraints results in zero boundary error and improves the accuracy of solutions on the interior of the domain. BOON’s correction method exhibits a 2-fold to 20-fold improvement over a given neural-operator model in relative L2 error.

Examples

Insulator at boundary.png
Nonzero flux at an insulator on the boundary. The solution to the unconstrained Fourier-neural-operator (FNO) model for the heat equation has a nonzero flux at the left insulating boundary, which means that it allows heat to flow through an insulator. This is in direct contradiction to the physics-enforced boundary constraint. BOON, which satisfies this so-called Neumann boundary condition, ensures that the gradient is zero at the insulator. Similarly, at the right boundary, we see that the FNO solution has a negative gradient at a positive heat source and that the BOON solution corrects this nonphysical result. Guaranteeing no violation of the underlying physics is critical to the practical adoption of these deep-learning models by practitioners in the field.
Stokes's second problem.png
Stokes’s second problem. This figure shows the velocity profile and corresponding absolute errors over time obtained by BOON (top). BOON improves the accuracy at the boundary, which, importantly, also improves accuracy on the interior of the domain compared to the unconstrained Fourier-neural-operator (FNO) model (bottom), where the errors at the boundary propagate inward over time.
Initial condition.png
2-D Navier-Stokes lid-driven cavity flow initial condition. The initial vorticity field (perpendicular to the screen), which is defined as the curl of the velocity field. At the initial time step, t = 0, the only nonzero component of the horizontal velocity is given by the top constant Dirichlet boundary condition, which drives the viscous incompressible flow at the later time steps. The other boundaries have the common no-slip Dirichlet boundary condition, which fixes the velocity to be zero at those locations.

Navier-Stokes lid-driven flow
2-D Navier-Stokes lid-driven cavity flow vorticity field. The vorticity field (perpendicular to the screen) within a square cavity filled with an incompressible fluid, which is induced by a fixed nonzero horizontal velocity prescribed by the Dirichlet boundary condition at the top boundary line for a 25-step (T=25) prediction until final time t = 2.
2-D Navier-Stokes lid-driven cavity flow relative error.
The L2 relative-error plots show significantly higher relative error over time for the data-driven Fourier neural operator (FNO) compared to that of our constrained BOON model on the Navier-Stokes lid-driven cavity flow problem for both a random test sample and the average over the test samples.

Acknowledgements: This work would have not been possible without the help of our coauthor Michael W. Mahoney, an Amazon Scholar; coauthors and PhD student interns Derek Hansen and Nadim Saad; and mentors Yuyang Wang and Margot Gerritsen.

Research areas

Related content

US, TX, Austin
Amazon Leo is an initiative to launch a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites that will provide low-latency, high-speed broadband connectivity to unserved and underserved communities around the world. As a Systems Engineer, this role is primarily responsible for the design, development and integration of Ka band and S/C band communication payload and ground terminal systems. The Role: Be part of the team defining the overall communication system and architecture of Amazon’s broadband wireless network. This is a unique opportunity to innovate and define groundbreaking wireless technology with few legacy constraints. The team develops and designs the communication system of Amazon Leo and analyzes its overall system level performance such as for overall throughput, latency, system availability, packet loss etc. This role in particular will be responsible for leading the effort in designing and developing advanced technology and solutions for communication system. This role will also be responsible developing advanced L1/L2 proof of concept HW/SW systems to improve the performance and reliability of the Amazon Leo network. In particular this role will be responsible for using concepts from digital signal processing, information theory, wireless communications to develop novel solutions for achieving ultra-high performance LEO network. This role will also be part of a team and develop simulation tools with particular emphasis on modeling the physical layer aspects such as advanced receiver modeling and abstraction, interference cancellation techniques, FEC abstraction models etc. This role will also play a critical role in the design, integration and verification of various HW and SW sub-systems as a part of system integration and link bring-up and verification. Export Control Requirement: Due to applicable export control laws and regulations, candidates must be a U.S. citizen or national, U.S. permanent resident (i.e., current Green Card holder), or lawfully admitted into the U.S. as a refugee or granted asylum. Key job responsibilities • Design advanced L1/L2 algorithms and solutions for the Amazon Leo communication system, particularly Multi-User MIMO techniques. • Develop proof-of-concepts for critical communication payload components using SDR platforms consisting of FPGAs and general-purpose processors. • Work with ASIC development teams to build power/area efficient L1/L2 HW accelerators to be integrated into Amazon Leo SoCs. • Provide specifications and work with implementation teams on the development of embedded L1/L2 HW/SW architectures. • Work with multi-disciplinary teams to develop advanced solutions for time, frequency and spatial acquisition/tracking in LEO systems, particularly under large uncertainties. • Develop link-level and system-level simulators and work closely with implementation teams to evaluate expected performance and provide quick feedback on potential improvements. • Develop testbeds consisting of digital, IF and RF components while accounting for link-budgets and RF/IF line-ups. Previous experiences with VSAs/VSGs, channel emulators, antennas (particularly phased-arrays) and anechoic chamber instrumentation are a plus. • Work with development teams on system integration and debugging from PHY to network layer, including interfacing with flight computer and SDN control subsystems. • Willing to work in fast-paced environment and take ownership that goes from algorithm specification, to HW/SW architecture definition, to proof-of-concept development, to testbed bring-up, to integration into the Amazon Leo system. • Be a team player and provide support when requested while being able to unblock themselves by reaching out to RF, ASIC, SW, Comsys and Testbed supporting teams to move forward in development, testing and integration activities. • Ability to adapt design and test activities based on current HW/SW capabilities delivered by the development teams.
US, TX, Austin
Project Leo (former Kuiper) is an initiative to launch a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites that will provide low-latency, high-speed broadband connectivity to unserved and underserved communities around the world. As a Systems Engineer, this role is primarily responsible for the design, development and integration of Ka band and FR1 band communication payload and customer terminal systems. The Role: Be part of the team defining the overall communication system and architecture of Amazon Leo’s broadband wireless network. This is a unique opportunity to innovate and define groundbreaking wireless technology at global scale. The team develops and designs the communication system for project Leo and analyzes its overall system level performance such as for overall throughput, latency, system availability, packet loss etc. This role in particular will be responsible for leading the effort in designing and developing advanced technology and solutions for communication system. This role will also be responsible developing advanced physical layer + protocol stacks systems as proof of concept and reference implementation to improve the performance and reliability of the LEO network. In particular this role will be responsible for using concepts from digital signal processing, information theory, wireless communications to develop novel solutions for achieving ultra-high performance LEO network. This role will also be part of a team and develop simulation tools with particular emphasis on modeling the physical layer aspects such as advanced receiver modeling and abstraction, interference cancellation techniques, FEC abstraction models etc. This role will also play a critical role in the integration and verification of various HW and SW sub-systems as a part of system integration and link bring-up and verification. Export Control Requirement: Due to applicable export control laws and regulations, candidates must be a U.S. citizen or national, U.S. permanent resident (i.e., current Green Card holder), or lawfully admitted into the U.S. as a refugee or granted asylum.
US, WA, Bellevue
Do you enjoy solving challenging problems and driving innovations in research? Are you seeking for an environment with a group of motivated and talented scientists like yourself? Do you want to create scalable optimization models and apply machine learning techniques to guide real-world decisions? Do you want to play a key role in the future of Amazon transportation and operations? Come and join us at Amazon's Modeling and Optimization team (MOP). Key job responsibilities A Research Scientist in the Modeling and Optimization (MOP) team - provides analytical decision support to Amazon planning teams via applying advanced mathematical and statistical techniques. - collaborates effectively with Amazon internal business customers, and is their trusted partner - is proactive and autonomous in discovering and resolving business pain-points within a given scope - is able to identify a suitable level of sophistication in resolving the different business needs - is confident in leveraging existing solutions to new problems where appropriate and is independent in designing and implementing new solutions where needed - is aware of the limitations of their proposed solutions and is proactive in communicating them to the business, and advances the application of sciences towards Amazon business problems by bringing new methods, ideas, and practices to the team and scientific community. A day in the life - Your will be developing model-based optimization, simulation, and/or predictive tools to identify and evaluate opportunities to improve customer experience, network speed, cost, and efficiency of capital investment. - You will quantify the improvements resulting from the application of these tools and you will evaluate the trade-offs between potentially competing objectives. - You will develop good communication skills and ability to speak at a level appropriate for the audience, will collaborate effectively with fellow scientists, software development engineers, and product managers, and will deliver business value in a close partnership with many stakeholders from operations, finance, IT, and business leadership. About the team - At the Modeling and Optimization (MOP) team, we use mathematical optimization, algorithm design, statistics, and machine learning to improve decision-making capabilities across WW Operations and Amazon Logistics. - We focus on transportation topology, labor and resource planning for fulfillment facilities, routing science, visualization research, data science and development, and process optimization. - We create models to simulate, optimize, and control the fulfillment network with the objective of reducing cost while improving speed and reliability. - We support multiple business lanes, therefore maintain a comprehensive and objective view, coordinating solutions across organizational lines where possible.
US, NJ, Jersey City
MULTIPLE POSITIONS AVAILABLE Employer: AMAZON WEB SERVICES, INC. Offered Position: Economist III Job Location: Jersey City, New Jersey Job Number: AMZ9674161 Position Responsibilities: Work with the chief economist and senior management on key business problems faced in retail, international retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, or operations. Apply the frontier of economic thinking to market design, pricing, forecasting, program evaluation, online advertising, and other areas. Build econometric models using data systems. Apply economic theory to solve business problems. Develop new techniques to process large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems. Apply tools from applied micro-econometrics (e.g. experimental design, difference-in-difference, regression discontinuity, and IV) and forecasting (essential time series models). Leverage big data tools for data extraction. Write up and present analysis for distribution to various levels of management at Amazon. Gain experience in academic research. Use program evaluation, forecasting, time series, panel data, and high dimensional problems. Use R and Stata. Position Requirements: Ph.D. or foreign equivalent degree in Economics, Finance, or a related field and three years of research or work experience in the job offered or a related occupation. Must have at least one year of research or work experience in the following skill(s): (1) working with Causal inference techniques (Difference-in-Differences, Matching, Double Machine Learning, Instrumental Variables, and Regression Discontinuity Designs); (2) statistical analysis tools (Python, R or Stata); (3) Data querying languages (SQL). Amazon.com is an Equal Opportunity-Affirmative Action Employer – Minority / Female / Disability / Veteran / Gender Identity / Sexual Orientation. 40 hours / week, 8:00am-5:00pm, Salary Range $175,100/year to $236,900/year. Amazon is a total compensation company. Dependent on the position offered, equity, sign-on payments, and other forms of compensation may be provided as part of a total compensation package, in addition to a full range of medical, financial, and/or other benefits. For more information, visit: https://www.aboutamazon.com/workplace/employee-benefits.#0000
US, NY, New York
MULTIPLE POSITIONS AVAILABLE Employer: AMAZON.COM SERVICES LLC Offered Position: Manager III, Economist Job Location: New York, New York Job Number: AMZ9782156 Position Responsibilities: Support the measurement of the Alexa business and provide actionable insights across Alexa customers and devices. Work with product managers, SDEs, financial analysts, and BIEs to help the Alexa organization identify new features and business opportunities as well as drive optimization of current features and services through your analyses as the technical lead on the team. Own the development of econometric models, and manage the modelling and validation work for analysis products. Design and develop Econometric models to solve business problems and improve customer CX. Develop techniques to process large datasets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems around the company. Write high quality code and participating in Econ tech reviews, work with the business stakeholders to understand and solve their business problems by applying the frontier of economic thinking. Mentor and support junior Economists and scientists. Position Requirements: PhD degree or foreign equivalent in Economics, Computer Science, or related field and five years of research or work experience in the job offered or related occupation. Must have one year of research or work experience in the following skill(s): experience with casual inference and predictive modeling; experience in econometrics (program evaluation, forecasting, time series, panel data, and high dimensional problems); and experience with economic theory and quantitative methods. Amazon.com is an Equal Opportunity-Affirmative Action Employer – Minority / Female / Disability / Veteran / Gender Identity / Sexual Orientation. 40 hours / week, 8:00am-5:00pm, Salary Range $226,782/year to $260,500/year. Amazon is a total compensation company. Dependent on the position offered, equity, sign-on payments, and other forms of compensation may be provided as part of a total compensation package, in addition to a full range of medical, financial, and/or other benefits. For more information, visit: https://www.aboutamazon.com/workplace/employee-benefits.#0000
US, NJ, Newark
At Audible, we believe stories have the power to transform lives. It’s why we work with some of the world’s leading creators to produce and share audio storytelling with our millions of global listeners. We are dreamers and inventors who come from a wide range of backgrounds and experiences to empower and inspire each other. Imagine your future with us. ABOUT THIS ROLE We are seeking a Data Scientist to own our causal inference infrastructure and drive sophisticated modeling that measures the incremental impact of business decisions. This role requires deep expertise in advanced causal inference methodologies—including synthetic control methods, Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID), and Bayesian approaches—to design rigorous experiments, estimate long-term customer behavior effects, and translate complex analytical results into clear business recommendations. You will own the development and continuous improvement of these causal inference models while being responsible for machine learning operations at scale to ensure our organization makes data-driven decisions with confidence. At Audible, you will have an opportunity to make the best of your skillsets to both develop advanced scientific solutions and drive critical customer and business impact. You will play a key role to drive end-to-end solutions from understanding our business and business requirements, identifying opportunities from a large amount of historical data and engaging in research to solve the business problems. You'll seek to create value for both stakeholders and customers and inform findings in a clear, actionable way to managers and senior leaders. You will be at the heart of an agile and growing area at Audible. ABOUT THE TEAM Audible Data Scientists are members of a global interdisciplinary insights and research team with an integral role in the design and integration of models to automate decision making throughout the business in every country. We empower the machine learning and deep learning techniques in many areas of the business. We translate business goals into agile, insightful analytics and seek to create value for both stakeholders and customers and convey findings in a clear, actionable way to managers and senior leaders. As a Data Scientist, you will... - Design and execute geo-level randomized experiments to measure incremental impact - Apply statistical techniques to evaluate causal impact in quasi-experimental settings - Ensure experiments are statistically valid by evaluating sampling strategies, statistical power, and potential sources of bias - Develop models that estimate long-term effects from short-term experiments using machine learning - Estimate how changes in customer behavior persist and decay over time - Own and maintain the geo-testing codebase, including deployment and scalability - Implement machine learning models at scale with focus on performance optimization - Partner with stakeholders to ensure models align with real business dynamics - Engage deeply with business problems through curiosity-driven questioning and brainstorming - Translate experimental results into financial impact and investment recommendations - Analyze marginal and average revenue impacts relative to costs - Communicate complex quantitative ideas clearly to non-technical stakeholders - Demonstrate understanding of Audible's business model and customer experience ABOUT AUDIBLE Audible is the leading producer and provider of audio storytelling. We spark listeners’ imaginations, offering immersive, cinematic experiences full of inspiration and insight to enrich our customers daily lives. We are a global company with an entrepreneurial spirit. We are dreamers and inventors who are passionate about the positive impact Audible can make for our customers and our neighbors. This spirit courses throughout Audible, supporting a culture of creativity and inclusion built on our People Principles and our mission to build more equitable communities in the cities we call home.
US, WA, Bellevue
What does it take to build a foundation model that can forecast demand for hundreds of millions of products — including ones that have never been sold before? At Amazon, our Demand Forecasting team is tackling one of the most ambitious challenges in applied time series research: designing and building large-scale foundation models that generalize across an enormous and diverse catalog of products, geographies, and business contexts. This is not incremental modeling work. We are redefining what's possible in demand forecasting through novel architectures, training strategies, and data generation techniques. Our team operates at a scale that is unmatched in industry or academia. You'll design experiments across millions of products simultaneously, developing new model architectures and training methodologies that push the boundaries of what foundation models can learn from vast, heterogeneous time series data. You'll explore techniques in transfer learning, zero-shot forecasting, and synthetic data generation. The models you design here will ship to production and directly influence hundreds of millions of dollars in automated inventory decisions every week. Beyond operational impact, you'll publish your work at top-tier conferences and contribute to advancing the state of the art in time series foundation models for the broader scientific community. If you are a scientist who wants to work at the frontier of time series research, design novel solutions to problems no one else has solved at this scale, and see your research deployed to real-world impact — this is the team for you. Key job responsibilities 1. Design and implement novel deep learning architectures (e.g., Transformers, SSMs, or Graph Neural Networks) for time-series foundation models that generalize across hundreds of millions of products and diverse global contexts. 2. Drive the full development cycle - from whiteboarding new algorithmic approaches to overseeing production-scale deployments. 3. Collaborate with SDEs to build high-performance, distributed training and inference pipelines; translate complex scientific concepts into scalable, production-grade code in Python and Scala. 4. Leverage and develop agentic GenAI workflows to automate the end-to-end research cycle from synthesizing state-of-the-art literature and auto-generating experimental code to rapidly iterating on model architectures across millions of products. 5. Maintain a high bar for scientific excellence by publishing novel research in top-tier venues (e.g., NeurIPS, ICLR, KDD) and contributing to Amazon’s internal patent and science community. A day in the life No two days look the same, but most will involve a high-velocity blend of deep architectural work, distributed system design, and frontier scientific thinking at a scale you won’t find anywhere else. You might start the morning by designing a synthetic data pipeline to stress-test your foundation model. You’ll use generative techniques to simulate rare "black swan" supply chain events, ensuring your model remains robust where historical data is thin. You'll then lead a Scientific Design Review, walking senior leaders through your model’s architecture, defending your choice of loss functions with data-driven rigor. You’ll write high-performance code often paired with AI-coding assistants to handle the heavy lifting of boilerplate and unit testing. You’ll collaborate across a "Two-Pizza Team" of scientists and engineers, pushing the boundaries of research with a clear goal: contributing to work that will be published at top-tier venues (ICLR, NeurIPS) while simultaneously driving multi-million dollar automated decisions. The work is hard, the math is complex, and the tools are state-of-the-art. If you want to build the models that actually ship—this is where you do it. About the team The Demand Forecasting team sits at the heart of Amazon's supply chain, building the science that determines what products are available, when, and at what cost — for hundreds of millions of customers around the world. Our mission is to push the frontier of what's possible in large-scale time series forecasting, and to deploy that science where it creates real, measurable impact. We are a team of scientists who care deeply about both research rigor and real-world outcomes. We don't just publish — we ship. And we don't just ship — we measure, iterate, and raise the bar. Our work spans the full lifecycle: from foundational research and large-scale experimentation to production deployment and downstream impact measurement across supply chain, inventory, and financial planning.
US, WA, Seattle
Are you motivated to explore research in ambiguous spaces? Are you interested in conducting research that will improve the employee and manager experience at Amazon? Do you want to work on an interdisciplinary team of scientists that collaborate rather than compete? Join us at PXT Central Science! The People eXperience and Technology Central Science Team (PXTCS) uses economics, behavioral science, statistics, and machine learning to proactively identify mechanisms and process improvements which simultaneously improve Amazon and the lives, wellbeing, and the value of work to Amazonians. We are an interdisciplinary team that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop and deliver solutions that measurably achieve this goal. We are seeking a senior Applied Scientist with expertise in more than one or more of the following areas: machine learning, natural language processing, computational linguistics, algorithmic fairness, statistical inference, causal modeling, reinforcement learning, Bayesian methods, predictive analytics, decision theory, recommender systems, deep learning, time series modeling. In this role, you will lead and support research efforts within all aspects of the employee lifecycle: from candidate identification to recruiting, to onboarding and talent management, to leadership and development, to finally retention and brand advocacy upon exit. The ideal candidate should have strong problem-solving skills, excellent business acumen, the ability to work independently and collaboratively, and have an expertise in both science and engineering. The ideal candidate is not methods-driven, but driven by the research question at hand; in other words, they will select the appropriate method for the problem, rather than searching for questions to answer with a preferred method. The candidate will need to navigate complex and ambiguous business challenges by asking the right questions, understanding what methodologies to employ, and communicating results to multiple audiences (e.g., technical peers, functional teams, business leaders). About the team We are a collegial and multidisciplinary team of researchers in People eXperience and Technology (PXT) that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop innovative solutions to make Amazon Earth's Best Employer. We leverage data and rigorous analysis to help Amazon attract, retain, and develop one of the world’s largest and most talented workforces.
US, WA, Seattle
WW Amazon Stores Finance Science (ASFS) works to leverage science and economics to drive improved financial results, foster data backed decisions, and embed science within Finance. ASFS is focused on developing products that empower controllership, improve business decisions and financial planning by understanding financial drivers, and innovate science capabilities for efficiency and scale. We are looking for a data scientist to lead high visibility initiatives for forecasting Amazon Stores' financials. You will develop new science-based forecasting methodologies and build scalable models to improve financial decision making and planning for senior leadership up to VP and SVP level. You will build new ML and statistical models from the ground up that aim to transform financial planning for Amazon Stores. We prize creative problem solvers with the ability to draw on an expansive methodological toolkit to transform financial decision-making with science. The ideal candidate combines data-science acumen with strong business judgment. You have versatile modeling skills and are comfortable owning and extracting insights from data. You are excited to learn from and alongside seasoned scientists, engineers, and business leaders. You are an excellent communicator and effectively translate technical findings into business action. Key job responsibilities Demonstrating thorough technical knowledge, effective exploratory data analysis, and model building using industry standard ML models Working with technical and non-technical stakeholders across every step of science project life cycle Collaborating with finance, product, data engineering, and software engineering teams to create production implementations for large-scale ML models Innovating by adapting new modeling techniques and procedures Presenting research results to our internal research community
US, WA, Seattle
The GRAISE team (Grocery, Retail & In-Store Experience) within Worldwide Grocery Store Tech (WWGST) builds foundational AI and machine learning systems that power Amazon's in-store grocery technologies. We develop domain-specific models that solve uniquely complex challenges in grocery — from smart shopping carts and inventory intelligence to personalization and store operations. Our mission is to create technology which makes grocery shopping more convenient, economical, personalized, and enjoyable for customers while empowering retailers with operational efficiency. We are looking for a talented and motivated Applied Scientist to join our team. In this role, you will design, develop, and deploy machine learning and computer vision models and algorithms that solve real-world problems at scale. You will work closely with engineering, product, and business teams to translate ambiguous problems into rigorous scientific solutions, and you will own the end-to-end development of models from ideation through production. This is a high-impact role where your work will directly shape the intelligence layer of Amazon's grocery ecosystem. Key job responsibilities - Design and implement machine learning models to solve complex grocery-domain problems. - Conduct exploratory data analysis and develop deep understanding of domain-specific data challenges. - Collaborate with software engineers to productionize models and ensure reliability at scale. - Define and track key metrics to evaluate model performance and business impact. - Communicate findings and recommendations clearly to technical and non-technical stakeholders. - Stay current with the latest research and evaluate applicability to team problems. - Contribute to a culture of scientific rigor, experimentation, and continuous improvement. A day in the life As an Applied Scientist on the GRAISE team, you'll spend your days analyzing model performance from overnight experiments, collaborating with engineers to deploy computer vision models to production, and prototyping new approaches using multimodal learning with store video and sensor data. You'll present findings to product and business stakeholders, translating technical results into actionable recommendations. Throughout the day, you'll balance rigorous scientific thinking with practical engineering constraints, knowing your work directly improves the shopping experience for millions of customers in Amazon grocery stores.