ExPERT: Modeling human behavior under external stimuli aware personalized MTPP

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) – the de-facto sequence model for continuous-time event sequences – historically employed for modeling human-generated action sequences, lack awareness of external stimuli. In this study, we propose a novel framework developed over Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) to incorporate external stimuli in a domain-agnostic manner. Furthermore, we integrate personalization into our framework by employing language model-based representations of user and event descriptions, which is essential for modeling human-generated action sequences. Towards evaluating the efficacy, we put together a comprehensive benchmark comprising 5 datasets (2 novel additions, and 3 repurposed from existing open datasets) harvested from several domains, spanning education, e-commerce, online payment, and discussion forum. On average, we achieve 9.35% gain in type-prediction accuracy and 7.38% reduction in time-prediction RMSE across all datasets over SOTA MTPP baselines. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed model through extensive ablations and showcasing its ability to capture complex combinations of external stimuli in a synthetic set up.