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  • Nowcasting recession risk
    Francesco Furno, Domenico Giannone
    IAAE 2023, Research Methods and Applications on Macroeconomic Forecasting
    2024
    We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but
    Economics
  • Adaptive experimentation when you can’t experiment
    Yao Zhao, Kwang-Sung Jun, Bibek Adhikari, Tanner Fiez, Lalit Jain
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    In this study, we aim to present an effective methodology tailored for companies interested in implement-ing adaptive experimentation in scenarios characterized by potential selection biases or endogeneity. To illustrate our approach, we begin by delving into the realm of online experimentation. Online platforms routinely conduct thousands of A/B tests annually to gain insights into the impact of user-facing
    Economics
  • Efficient switchback experiments via multiple randomization designs
    Lorenzo Masoero, Guido Imbens, Thomas Richardson, James McQueen, Suhas Vijaykumar, Ido Rosen
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Online A/B tests have become an indispensable tool across all the technology industry: if performed correctly, “online” experiments can inform effective decision making and product development. It should therefore not be surprising that Gupta et al. [2019] estimates that online businesses alone collectively run hundreds of thousands of experiments annually. Modern online experiments are often run in marketplaces
    Economics
  • Cross-unit spillovers in A/B testing: Empirical evidence from ads
    Ronak Jain, Stefan Hut, Mahnaz Islam, Yao Pan
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) are widely used across Amazon to causally estimate impacts of proposed feature changes, in order to make data-driven launch decisions. A key element of experimental design is the level of randomization, and the choice often relies on the cross-unit interaction structure. For instance, in the context of advertiser experiments, a treatment may affect the outcome of control
    Economics
  • Value of stratification in cluster-randomized experiments
    Stefan Hut, Blake Mason, Mahnaz Islam, Lledo Esquerra
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    There are many experimental settings that may suffer from cross-unit (customers, seller, advertiser, etc.) spillovers, for instance through network effects. Such effects introduce bias and prevent the experimenter from drawing trustworthy insights on the data. One approach to dealing with such spillovers is to group units into clusters and randomize treatment status at the cluster level. Examples of clusters
    Economics
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Economist - AWS, AWS Econ
US, WA, Seattle
The AWS Central Economics & Sciences team is looking for a PhD economist. The ideal candidate will be an expert in reduced form causal inference, be comfortable with estimating structural models, and have experience with ML techniques. Working knowledge of python is a plus. You will learn about cloud products, including compute, storage, and databases. You will work on analytic projects requested by senior leadership. You will get the opportunity to learn new techniques. You will be a part of a team with experienced business partners, economists, and data scientists. Key job responsibilities -Conduct econometric analyses using methods in causal inference. -Develop prescriptive recommendations with structural economic models About the team ACES works on high-impact projects for AWS service teams and leadership. This position will support the pricing team to develop and implement mechanisms for AWS to use pricing strategically to grow the business and improve customer experience.
Economist, PXT Central Science
US, VA, Arlington
The People eXperience and Technology Central Science Team (PXTCS) uses economics, behavioral science, statistics, and machine learning to proactively identify mechanisms and process improvements which simultaneously improve Amazon and the lives, wellbeing, and the value of work to Amazonians. We are an interdisciplinary team that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop and deliver solutions that measurably achieve this goal. We are looking for economists who are able to work with business partners to hone complex problems into specific, scientific questions, and test those questions to generate insights. The ideal candidate will work with engineers and computer scientists to estimate models and algorithms on large scale data, design pilots and measure their impact, and transform successful prototypes into improved policies and programs at scale. We are looking for creative thinkers who can combine a strong technical economic toolbox with a desire to learn from other disciplines, and who know how to execute and deliver on big ideas as part of an interdisciplinary technical team. Ideal candidates will work closely with business partners to develop science that solves the most important business challenges. They will work in a team setting with individuals from diverse disciplines and backgrounds. They will serve as an ambassador for science and a scientific resource for business teams, so that scientific processes permeate throughout the HR organization to the benefit of Amazonians and Amazon. Ideal candidates will own the data analysis, modeling, and experimentation that is necessary for estimating and validating models. They will work closely with engineering teams to develop scalable data resources to support rapid insights, and take successful models and findings into production as new products and services. They will be customer-centric and will communicate scientific approaches and findings to business leaders, listening to and incorporate their feedback, and delivering successful scientific solutions. Key job responsibilities Use causal inference methods to evaluate the impact of policies on employee outcomes. Examine how external labor market and economic conditions impact Amazon's ability to hire and retain talent. Use scientifically rigorous methods to develop and recommend career paths for employees. A day in the life Work with teammates to apply economic methods to business problems. This might include identifying the appropriate research questions, writing code to implement a DID analysis or estimate a structural model, or writing and presenting a document with findings to business leaders. Our economists also collaborate with partner teams throughout the process, from understanding their challenges, to developing a research agenda that will address those challenges, to help them implement solutions. About the team We are a multidisciplinary team that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop innovative solutions to make Amazon Earth's Best Employer.
Senior Economist, GM Forecast and Planning
LU, Luxembourg
At Global Mile Expansion team, our vision is to become the carrier of choice for all of our Selling Partners cross-border shipping needs, offering complete set of end to end cross border solutions from key manufacturing hubs to footprint countries supporting business who use Amazon to grow their business globally. As we expand, the need for comprehensive business insight and robust demand forecasting to aid decision making on asset utilization especially where we know demand will be variable becomes vital, as well as operational excellence. We are building business models involving large amounts of data and Macro economic inputs to produce the robust forecast to help the operational excellence and continue improving the customer experience. We are looking for an experienced economist who can apply innovative modelling techniques to real-world problems, and convert it to highly business-impacting solutions. Key job responsibilities - Experienced in using mathematical and statistical approach to create new, scalable solutions for business problems - Analyze and extract relevant information from business data to help automate and optimize key processes - Design, develop and evaluate highly innovative models for predictive learning - Establish scalable, efficient, automated processes for large scale data analyses, model development, model validation and model implementation - Research and implement statistical approaches to understand the business long-term and short-term trend and support the strategies
Senior Economist, Device Economics
US, VA, Arlington
Device Economics is looking for a senior economist experienced in causal inference, machine learning, empirical industrial organization, and scaled systems to work on business problems to advance critical resource allocation and pricing decisions in the Amazon Devices org. Senior roles lead vision setting, methods innovation, and act as thought leaders to Devices finance and business executives. Output will be included in scaled systems to automate existing processes and to maximize business and customer objectives. Amazon Devices designs and builds Amazon first-party consumer electronics products to delight and engage customers. Amazon Devices represents a highly complex space with 100+ products across several product categories (e-readers [Kindle], tablets [Fire Tablets], smart speakers and audio assistants [Echo], wifi routers [eero], and video doorbells and cameras [Ring and Blink]), for sale both online and in offline retailers in several regions. The space becomes more complex with dynamic product offering with new product launches and new marketplace launches. The Device Economics team leads in analyzing these complex marketplace dynamics to enable science-driven decision making in the Devices org. Device Economics achieves this through scientific applications that provide deep understanding of customer preferences. Our team’s outputs inform product development decisions, investments in future product categories, and product pricing and promotion. We have achieved substantial impact on the Devices business, and will achieve more. Device Economics seeks an experienced economist adept in measuring customer preferences and behaviors with proven capacity to innovate, scale measurement, drive rigor, and mentor talent. The candidate will work with Amazon Devices science leadership to refine science roadmaps, models, and priorities for innovation and simplification, and advance adoption of insights to influence important resource allocation and prioritization decisions. Effective communication skills (verbal and written) are required to ensure success of this collaboration. The candidate must be passionate about advancing science for business and customer impact.
Economist, AWS
US, VA, Arlington
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is seeking a highly skilled Economist to help shape the future of our company and enhance the success of our customers. With AWS generating approximately $100B in annual revenue, we are expanding rapidly and need to identify the interventions that are most effective in helping both existing and potential customers throughout their cloud- adoption journey. As part of this role, you will apply advanced econometrics and machine learning techniques to determine which interventions yield the best outcomes across different stages of the customer journey, from early engagement to mature customer relationships. Your work will center on applying causal inference and machine learning to large, complex datasets, uncovering actionable insights that directly influence AWS's strategic decisions. You will be instrumental in developing scalable models that deepen our understanding of customer behavior and quantify the impact of marketing and sales initiatives. By working closely with key business stakeholders, you’ll ensure that AWS consistently delivers the most effective solutions tailored to the unique needs of our diverse and growing customer base. Key job responsibilities -Apply your expertise in econometrics and machine learning to evaluate the effectiveness of AWS interventions and customer engagement strategies. -Identify patterns and opportunities in customer data to suggest new interventions, such as credit offers, discounts, and service recommendations. -Formalize and document research processes, ensuring scientific rigor and knowledge sharing within Amazon’s science community. -Communicate insights and findings effectively to business leaders across various levels of the organization, influencing strategic decision-making.
Sr. Economist, DSI
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where people can find and discover anything they want to buy online. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Are you seeking an environment where you can drive innovation? Do you want to apply learning techniques and advanced mathematical modeling to solve real world problems? Do you want to play a key role in the future of Amazon's Retail business? This job for you! The Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) team at Amazon is responsible for the architecture, design, implementation of tools used to understand customer behavior and value generation for all Amazon programs. Our vision is to ensure that every decision at Amazon is customer-obsessed and maximizes long-term free cash flow (LTFCF). To achieve this we build the best, unbiased and most trusted measures of incremental customer long-term value and make them universally adopted as the company standard for customer-obsessed decisions. Come and join us! Amazon’s CBA team is looking for Economists, who can work at the intersection of economics, statistics and machine learning; and leverage the power of big data to solve complex problems like long-term causal effect estimation. Key job responsibilities Economists at Amazon are expected to work directly with other Economists and senior management on key business problems in retail, international retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, and operations. Amazon economists will apply the frontier of economic thinking to market design, pricing, forecasting, program evaluation, online advertising and other areas. You will build econometric models, using our world class data systems, and apply economic theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. Economists at Amazon will be expected to develop new techniques to process large data sets, build trust in the techniques with rigorous science and validation, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems around the company.
Economist, Device Economics
US, VA, Arlington
Device Economics is looking for an economist experienced in causal inference, empirical industrial organization, forecasting, and scaled systems to work on business problems to advance critical resource allocation and pricing decisions in the Amazon Devices org. Output will be included in scaled systems to automate existing processes and to maximize business and customer objectives. Amazon Devices designs and builds Amazon first-party consumer electronics products to delight and engage customers. Amazon Devices represents a highly complex space with 100+ products across several product categories (e-readers [Kindle], tablets [Fire Tablets], smart speakers and audio assistants [Echo], wifi routers [eero], and video doorbells and cameras [Ring and Blink]), for sale both online and in offline retailers in several regions. The space becomes more complex with dynamic product offering with new product launches and new marketplace launches. The Device Economics team leads in analyzing these complex marketplace dynamics to enable science-driven decision making in the Devices org. Device Economics achieves this by combining economic expertise with macroeconomic trends, and including both in scientific applications for use by internal analysts, to provide deep understanding of customer preferences. Our team’s outputs inform product development decisions, investments in future product categories, product pricing and promotion, and bundling across complementary product lines. We have achieved substantial impact on the Devices business, and will achieve more. Device Economics seeks an economist adept in measuring customer preferences and behaviors with proven capacity to innovate, scale measurement, and drive rigor. The candidate must be passionate about advancing science for business and customer impact.
Manager, Senior Economist, AWS Central Econ and Science
US, WA, Seattle
We are hiring a Senior Economist who is excited about leading a team that develops and implements frontier causal inference for Amazon Web Services (AWS). The problem space includes program evaluation, experimental platform design in non-standard settings, and identification in two and multi-sided markets. Almost all inference problems are part of larger structural relationships with ambiguity so strong applied theory is also key to this position. Key job responsibilities This role with interface directly with executives, product owners and science ICs and leadership to create multi-year research agendas that drive step change growth for the business. This role is important for development of the strategic direction of the AWS Central Economics and Science team. This role will report directly to the Chief Economist of AWS and help develop and implement science best practices for the team in collaborative partnership with other scientists, economists and engineers in the org. The role will also be an important collaborator with other science teams at AWS, especially those working on productivity and seller resource allocation. A day in the life Our team takes big swings and works on hard cross organizational problems where the optimal success rate is not 100%. We also ask people to grow their skills and stretch and make sure we do it in a supportive and fun environment. It’s about empirically measured impact, advancement, and fun on our team. We work hard during work hours but we also don’t encourage working at nights or on weekends except in very rare, high stakes cases. Burn out isn’t a successful long run strategy. Because we invest in the long run success of our group it’s important to have hobbies, relax and then come to work refreshed and excited. It makes for bigger impact, faster skill accrual and thus career advancement. About the team Our group is technically rigorous and encourages ongoing academic conference participation and publication. Our leaders are here for you and to enable you to be successful. We believe in being servant leaders focused on influence: good data work has little value if it doesn’t translate into actionable insights that are rolled out and impact the real economy. We are communication centric since being able to explain what we do ensures high success rates and lowers administrative churn. Also: we laugh a lot. If it’s not fun, what’s the point?
Principal Economist, Devices Economic Value
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon's Devices Economic Value team enables measurement and optimization of Amazon Devices long-term value to help Amazon build better products for their customers. Delivering lasting value to customers is in Amazon's DNA and we are at the core of how the Devices business prioritizes its investments in innovation and optimization on behalf of customers. Join us to be a part of the team that is at the core of understanding how Amazon Devices drive deeper customer engagement and helps the business make decisions about how to optimize and balance between short term monetization and long term value creation for Amazon Device users. We are seeking a skilled Principal Economist to build the future of long term value measurement and optimization for Amazon Devices. Key job responsibilities We are looking for a talented Principal Economist to drive the science evolution within the Devices Economic Value space (DEV). The Principal Economist will be responsible for evolving the DEV paradigm towards driving direct business value via actionable business levers and influencing the Devices org business strategy through a better understanding of the DEV drivers. They will be responsible for science solutions to better align DEV product and engineering systems towards direct value generation through production systems. We expect the Principal Economist to drive Economic Value innovation, leveraging current advances in causal inference and machine learning. About the team DEV Science team’s mission is to drive measurement and optimization of long term economic value of the devices business that balances short term and long term tradeoffs across product lifecycle, and drive clear value for Amazon shoppers. We leverage science advancements across causal inference, structural modeling and machine learning, to solve challenging business problems in Amazon Devices. The team spans scientists across a wide range of seniority, tenure and specialization, including economists, data and applied scientists, with dedicated product and engineering partners.
Senior Economist - Subscription Science, Device Economics
US, VA, Arlington
Amazon Devices is revolutionizing smart home devices and services, and we're seeking a visionary Senior Economist to lead the charge. In this high-impact role, you'll flex your advanced Empirical IO and Structural Demand modeling expertise to tackle complex pricing challenges for a diverse portfolio of world-class products and services. Imagine being the driving force behind the pricing and demand strategies that power game-changing innovations for brands like Alexa, Ring, Blink, and Kids+. Your insights will directly influence critical business decisions, like optimizing, bundled offerings, and feature roadmaps for subscriptions. Get ready to dive deep, uncover valuable insights, and transform them into real-world impact. Whether you're supporting products pre-launch or fine-tuning mature business lines, your work will have a multi-million-dollar influence. As a Senior Economist on the Subscription Science team, you'll collaborate cross-functionally to shape product roadmaps. Sound like the kind of challenge you thrive on? Bring your passion for problem-solving, your knack for translating data into action, and your entrepreneurial spirit – and join us on the frontlines of the connected home revolution. This is your opportunity to make a lasting mark and create experiences that delight customers worldwide. Key job responsibilities - Develop advanced structural demand and econometric frameworks for products and services in Amazon Devices. - Create and drive the scientific roadmap for the team, and influence partner science teams - Drive cross-functional collaboration with scientists, engineers, and business leaders to integrate economic insights into strategic decision-making processes and shape future initiatives. - Communicate insights in writing and verbally, to senior leaders on Product and Finance teams within the company. - Actively mentor junior scientists on advanced econometric techniques. About the team This role is in the Subscription Science team, a cross-functional team in Amazon Devices that focuses on developing science models to inform major one-way door decisions that lead to customer facing changes for our products and services, and using these insights to help product teams focus efforts on improving products for their customers. We do this by building world-class demand models which provide pricing recommendations, for these organizations and help inform critical business investment decisions, frequently presenting results to the highest levels of leadership in the organization. In addition to the primary job location we are open to considering locations near major Amazon hubs including but not limited to Arlington VA (HQ2 near DC).
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